Update 23 February 17:00 GMT: Hundreds of thousands of people filled the streets of Beirut and packed into a stadium today for the funeral of former Hezbollah Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah, who was killed on September 27 together with many of the group’s top commanders. Nasrallah’s cousin and successor, Hashem Safieddine, who was killed in an Israeli airstrike a few days later, was buried alongside him. Nasrallah and Safieddine were temporarily buried in secret graves after they were killed nearly five months ago. Nasrallah’s coffin, draped in yellow, alongside Saffiedine’s, appeared in the stadium on a large semi-trailer truck converted into a funeral hearse which looped around the track to chants and cheers from a massive crowd. Official delegations with high ranking officials from Iran and Yemen attended. Israeli jets buzzed the stadium, breaking the sound barrier, but the crowd raised its voice above the boom. Secretary General Na‘im Qassem spoke on screen to emphasise Hezbollah’s continuing and unbending path of resistance in alliance with the Amal movement, committing, as he did only a week ago, to fight against the expulsion of Gazans and Palestinians from their homeland. This, as will become evident in the weeks and months to come, is a significant pledge in the context of fast evolving (and changing) Middle Eastern politics. President Joseph Aoun met with the Iranian delegation, which committed to helping with Lebanon’s reconstruction, even as the US under Trump returned to the policy of maximum pressure on Iran that failed to work when it was applied in Trump’s first presidency. If Lebanon continues to be the only Arab country whose constitution stipulates Israel as a formal enemy, it is due to its tradition of resistance not only among Shiites, but also among Sunni Muslims and Christians (although on the extreme right of the Christian groups the Samir Gaegae’s Lebanese Forces stand in opposition to the resistance and in alliance with the American Empire).

Update 22 February 15:15 GMT: A summit between Saudi Crown Prince MBS, UAE President MBZ, UAE National Security Advisor Sheikh Tahnoun Bin Zayed, Qatari Emir Tamim Bin Hamad, Kuwaiti Emir Meshaal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber, Jordanian King Abdullah II and Jordanian Crown Prince Hussein, Egyptian President Sisi and Bahraini PM Salman bin Hamad ended without a statement. Despite agreement on everything else, as expected, as of the end of the meeting there was no agreement on the future governance of Gaza.

Update 20 February 08:00 GMT: It appears that the Arab leaders’ meeting in Riyadh has been delayed. The current scheduled date is Friday 21 February. As far as the Trump plan is concerned, Marco Rubio has been advised by the UAE that it is being dispatched into the dustbin of history. What remains to be seen is how Arab leaders figure out their relationship to Hamas, although Hamas is exhibiting maximum flexibility (knowing that at the end of the day, all roads in Gaza lead to its door). The other thing is that if Trump has now reached out to Russia (in Riyadh two days ago) and is looking, with the support of Elon Musk, to negotiating some kind of new deal with China, that leaves the Middle East up in the air with madman Netanyahu still setting the agenda. Trump has already blown apart the idea of the US supporting Israel in an attack on Iran. So will the combined Arab pressure emanating from the meeting next Friday give Trump the incentive to control Netanyahu?

Update 19 February 20:30 GMT: A growing level of instability threatens Lebanon as Shiite populations are getting ready for the public funeral of Hassan Nasrallah and Sayyed Hashem Safieddine on 23 February. Although Hezbollah Secretary General Nai‘m Qassem has ordered that there be no shows of force and firing of weapons at the funeral, it is clear that Israel will do it’s best to cause mischief. The level of pressure being put on Shiite populations by the Christian Lebanese Forces led by Samir Gaegae, and through interference by Israel and the United States, could well boil over into civil war. So far President Joseph Aoun has been able to defuse many a difficult situation for a people under pressure, but it isn’t clear that PM Nawaf Salam, as a long term jurist, has any political nous.

Update 19 February 20:00 GMT: A huge number of displaced people, upwards of 40,000 have fled from their homes in the West Bank, according to UNRWA, as “Israel” pushes its operations deeper than ever in the West Bank, targeting Tulkarm, Jenin, the Nur Shams and Tulkarm refugee camps. The West Bank is descending into the unknown, even as the Palestinian Authority, whose responsibility the West Bank is, bids to manage Gaza’s reconstruction, while trying to earn its spurs for the job by murdering the Palestinians who should be under its protection. Let’s see what the meeting in Riyadh tomorrow brings.

Update 19 February 19:30 GMT: Egypt President Abdel-Fattah Sisiis travelling to Riyadhfor a meeting with Arab leaders tomorrow, 20February, on his plans to rebuild Gaza without displacing the people. The plans, it appears, have been shared with King Abdullah of Jordan and Donald Trump, who appears to be listening. It isn’t clear what plans there are for satisfying Israel on the issue of not ceding control to Hamas during reconstruction, given that Hamas and the residents of Gaza are more or less synonymous. Israel continues to cause problems over allowing in convoys to the level agreed in the cease fire agreement. Nor it is clear where negotiations over phase II are going. Gazans are still being killed by Israeli forces every day.

Update 18 February 12:00 GMT: As Lebanese residents pour into the last southern villages now freed from Israeli forces, Lebanese President Joseph Aoun has announced that his government will go to the United Nations Security Council to ask for implementation of Resolution 1701 which, if implemented, would see the Israeli troops still stationed on 5 hilltops expelled. A US veto of the resolution would strain relations between the Lebanese government and the United States perhaps to breaking point.

Update 17 February 20:00 GMT: Israel has announced its withdrawal from Southern Lebanon, but declared unilaterally that a ‘small number’ of its troops ‘will remain at five strategic points along the Lebanese border’ to ensure that there is no immediate threat to Israeli population centres close by: the Hasullam mountain range, the Hashaked mountain range, the Hatzivoni mountain range, Jabal Blat , and Hamamis overlooking Mount Dov and Metula. Let us see how the neophyte Lebanese PM, Nawaf Salam, handles this explosive question in the days to come.

Update 16 February 19:00 GMT: Lebanese politics being the boiling cauldron that it always is, PM Nawaf Salam’s ambitions to transcend his administrative role and take over the political lead of the Sunni community, was dealt a blow by the return to politics of Saad Hariri, who announced the revival of the Future Movement (Tayyar al-Mustaqbal) two days ago. It is unlikely that Hariri’s return would be taking place without the Saudis being interested, whatever the denials. Never to miss a trick, Na‘im Qassem, Secretary General of Hezbollah, welcomed his return by remembering his father, Rafik, among the many martyred Lebanese leaders of the past (video @ 4.50 mins), further emphasising Hezbollah’s full brotherly cooperation with his movement ‘in the interests of the nation.’ Qassem also offered any practical help the regional Arab states might need in countering the Trump ethnic cleansing plan. More specifically, he warned the Nawaf Salam government not to allow the Israelis to stay on even one inch of Lebanese territory after 18 February, and to have the courage to defend Lebanese sovereignty against all of Israel’s various recent provocations. He reminded everyone that had it not been for the ‘duo’, Hezbollah and Amal, who sought to reinforce the spirit of national accord, President Joseph Aoun wouldn’t have obtained the votes that made him president. While everything that Qassem said in his speech was in the full spirit of cooperation with this current government, it is clear that the ground is being laid for a future reaction to its failure to keep the United States to its agreements.   

Update 16 February 10:00 GMT: Yesterday, Nabih Berri, Speaker of the Lebanese Parliament and head of the Amal movement, met with the head of the ceasefire monitoring committee, General Jasper Jeffers, and US Ambassador to Lebanon Lisa Johnson. He came out of the meeting to announce that ‘the Americans informed me that the Israeli occupation will withdraw on February 18 from the villages it still occupies, but that it will remain in 5 strategic locations.’ He informed them on behalf of himself, President Joseph Aoun and Prime Minister Nawaf Salam of their absolute joint rejection of any such outcome, which would fatally undermine the government that they helped put together. Israeli violent incursions continue into Lebanon: a strategy of preventing the rebuilding of the south. The Israelis are also threatening flights between Tehran and Beirut as part of a strategy to make Iran’s attempt to help with the rebuilding as difficult as possible. The public funeral of Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah and Hashem Safieddine is due on 23 February. Should Israel still be positioned on any Lebanese territory, the stance of Hezbollah and Amal will likely become clear after that date. This period will also be decisive in virtue of the Riyadh summit on Gaza on 20 February.

Update 15 February 10:30 GMT: Three Israeli prisoners were released from Gaza upon the buses arriving in Ramallah which were carrying the 369 Palestinians due to be released by Israel. This occurred without incident. Most of these were Gazan civilians arrested without charge during the Israeli onslaught on the enclave, although 36 had been given life sentences by Israel’s courts. So after the formal exchange, 7 buses carrying 333 Palestinian prisoners made their way to the Gaza Strip via the Kerem Shalom crossing, arriving to the acclaim of large crowds. The released Palestinians burned their prison clothes carrying the Star of David and the logo of “Shabas” (the Israeli Prison Service) with the phrase “We do not forget and we do not forgive” stamped on the garments.

Update 15 February 08:30 GMT: The Arab Summit on the Gaza situation and Trump’s insane plan has been shifted from Cairo to Riyadh for February 20. This indicates that leadership is now definitely in the hands of Saudi Arabia. The Saudi position has been building up since Ministers in Israel’s extreme right wing government first announced the reality of the ‘Greater Israel’ plan. This led Saudi Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman to announce in November 2024 that the March 2023 peace agreement with Iran was now being turned into a ‘strategic partnership,’ which included close military coordination. After King Abdullah of Jordan’s stitch up by Trump at the White House last Tuesday 11 February, Mohamed bin Salman called a cabinet meeting led by King Salman on the same day to repudiate Trump’s Plan and make the agreement on a Palestinian state with its capital in East Jerusalem an ineradicable part of any future agreement with the United States and Israel. With hindsight, Sisi’s cancellation of his trip to the White House would have been a demand made by Riyadh, it is unlikely he would have made the decision by himself. Expect an Arab united front and a tough stance on Gaza. Depending on whether or not Netanyahu goes back to war (which would be senseless and have zero results except for keeping him in power for a few weeks longer) we could have a new major geopolitical rift. Also depending on the situation in Ukraine there is a chance that Saudi Arabia and Russia may use these developments to force up the price of oil. This will all be discussed after the February 20 Riyadh meeting on this site.

Update 14 February 16:00 GMT: Israel has begun letting the shipments into Gaza through that were withheld during the first phase of the ceasefire agreement. This means that tomorrow’s hostage swap will be going through on Hamas’ terms: quite a humiliation for Trump who was crowing he would ‘unleash hell’ if Hamas didn’t release all the hostages on Israel’s terms without receiving humanitarian aid and quite a drubbing for Netanyahu, who hasn’t quite recovered from Hamas’ triumph in the last hostage swap. See tomorrow’s post on why Saudi Arabia is now leading a united Arab front against Trump and Netanyahu.

Update 13 February 18:00 GMT: The hostage swap for Saturday 15^th February is back on. However, we find Israel apparently meeting HAMAS’ condition that missing shipments under the first phase of the ceasefire deal be recovered retroactively. So shipments are to go up from 500 shipments a day to 800. It is important to note HAMAS’s dismissal of Trump’s threats and the successful imposition of its conditions. This indicates its total control over Gaza, as well as Israel’s unwillingness to restart the war there. Both of these factors will have dramatic implications for near term developments. Follow this news.    

Update 13 February 11:00 GMT: It looks like Israel has climbed down on the Saturday deadline that Trump set for 15 February, when he demanded all hostages be released. Still the UN is warning ‘Israel’ that it is still restricting crucial aid to Gaza. Nevertheless, Netanyahu isn’t going to take up the opportunity that Trump offered to restart the Gaza War. Why? The reason is likely related to the fact that Trump envoy Morgan Ortegas will be travelling from Israel to Beirut to negotiate with the Lebanese government over the 18 February deadline for the withdrawal of Israeli troops from the border region. It is understood (Arabic video with important insights into the political situation in Lebanon and the American project) that Israel wants to add 5 elevated strategic positions in the geography of the Lebanese border to complete the pattern of its deployment in Southern Syria. So we can draw two temporary conclusions from this: (i) abiding by the Gaza ceasefire, despite Trump’s go ahead to kill more Palestinians, has to do with the Israeli army being occupied with preparing the ground for a potential offensive in the future in its north. (ii) If the Lebanese government, brought about by the United States, albeit subsequently becoming a Saudi project, with which the Shiite ‘duo,’ Hezbollah and Amal cooperated to the absolute maximum extent, agrees to any deployment of Israeli troops on the Lebanese border areas after the deadline, it will fall. The Americans will lose such limited purchase over the internal politics of Lebanon as it has started to gain through PM Nawaf Salam (see above video). There is a Lebanese saying: always follow the liar to the front door of his home.

Update 12 February 23:00 GMT: This news is a week old but it is important. Egyptian diplomats have warned officials in the Trump administration at multiple levels that if any attempt is made to ethnically cleanse Gaza, Egypt will take military action. These threats are buried in the second part of a Washington Post article ( 6 Feb) on the subject of Egypt lobbying against the Trump plan, although according to newscaster Mohamed Qandil (7 Feb) (Arabic video), they should have made it into the article’s headline. The problem with the Trump administration, however, it that we see here the coming to power in the United States of what amounts to a medieval monarch. No-one can get past his antechamber of sycophantic courtiers.

Update 12 February 13:30 GMT: Egyptian President Sisi will not visit the White House if the Trump Plan is still on the table.

Update 12 February 12:00 GMT: Despite the clear statement by King Abdulla that Jordan’s absorption of Palestinians will be extremely limited and related only to extending medical help to Gazans, his diplomatic talk about the fact that Trump’s plan for Gaza ‘needs to be considered in the interests of all parties’ (in relation to the upcoming 27 February Cairo summit) has led to a furore on social media that the king will ultimately capitulate. However, this is mistaken. It is only to be welcomed that the meeting between Abdullah and Trump did not descend into a shouting match. Diplomatic talk aside, it is clear to the Americans that Jordan will not open its doors to a large influx of refugeees. When the idea is broached that the funds disbursed to Jordan under the Wadi ‘Araba Peace Accord of 26 October 1994 might be withdrawn, it must be understood that Israel and Jordan have since then generated a veritable thicket of agreements over water rights, intelligence cooperation and the like which, overall, benefit Israel, and which Israel would not like to lose.

Update 12 February 06:00 GMT: King Abdulla of Jordan met with President Trump yesterday in Washington, limited his intake of Gazans to 2000 children who need urgent medical care, and explained that following an emergency meeting of Arab States on 27 February coming, President Sisi of Egypt will make a proposal for reconstruction of Gaza that does not require the removal of the enclave’s inhabitants. Saudi Arabia for its part, as explained in the article below has rejected, in a formal statement, any idea of the Gazans being forced out. Also as explained below the whole faceoff over Gaza is essentially one between Trump and Saudi Arabia about how much money he can squeeze out of the desert kingdom, and how fast it can be paid out.

Update 11 February 19:00 GMT: Yemen’s leader, Abdel-Malik al-Houthi, spoke today (11 February) to describe the latest political situation, eventually coming round to Trump’s ethnic cleansing plan (@ 46.20 mins). Having criticised the craven obedience of Arab regimes to American rule in the past, he now lauds their rejection of Trump’s plans (@48.30 mins), and their new common stand (which will be the subject of a Cairo summit on 27 February). Al-Houthi emphasises that this new unity is a golden opportunity to finally turn the page on an ugly past (@50.1 mins), the ugliest part of which is the direct cooperation of the Palestinian Authority with the massacres in the West Bank that are going on in Jenin and Tulkarm, a policy which is not only cruel but completely senseless even for them (@ 57mins). Calling for unity, al-Houthi, who stands at the head of a militarised Yemeni population of 20 millions, living in impregnable terrain in the north of the country, announces that should Israel not continue with the current Gaza ceasefire deal, his forces will immediately begin military operations against Tel Aviv (@ 1.00 hr). ‘Our hands are on the triggers’ (@ 1.01:10 hr). He repeats this message of support for the Lebanese, should Israeli forces not quit remaining positions in Southern Lebanon by 18 February (@ 1.03:01 hr). Trump recently ordered military operations against the Houthis, forgetting that the US fought against them between 2015 and 2020 and lost, and that more recently the American Navy has had to turn tail after attacks from the Houthis, calling the battles, the biggest since WWII. After disclosing Yemen’s hypersonic missile capability five months ago, al-Houthi is now advertising the same missiles with the same speeds but with greatly increased explosive payloads.

MAIN TEXT

Where, for Heaven’s sake is the International Court of Justice? HAS IT BEEN KNOBBLED? Contrary to the pacifying assurances of some professors of law,  could Judge Sebutinde’s leadership actually be a material factor in the outcome of the case of GENOCIDE against Israel?

We issued a CALL TO ACTION here on the basis that the doctored dissenting opinion she had written (thus hiding its original plagiarised Zionist argumentation) spelled trouble. There is no cause for complacency in a situation where the International Criminal Court prosecutor, Karim Khan, faces sanctions for recommending arrest warrants against Israeli leaders for war crimes based on solid legal arguments. There is no cause for complacency when the new US administration, and its court favourite, Elon Musk, who was fed at the breast of southern African apartheid, manufactures facts in order to attack the state of South Africa, the leading plaintiff in the case.

Several August organisations have come out to make their own case for GENOCIDE, and egg the ICJ on.  There was a very brief moment during the inauguration of the new President of the United States that gave the sense of hope for a new direction for the country after the senility of the old administration passed.

Clearly that was illusory. A restart of the war on Gaza is now being ordered by the new president of the United States. Trump it seems, like Edgar the BUG in the first Men in Black film, has now completely shed the human skin that he once used to insinuate himself into human society. He now stridulates and stretches out his thin crispy limbs in multiple threats to the world. He has in a very short space of time become a figure of ridicule. Trump’s threat to ethnically cleanse Gaza is being firmly resisted by Egypt and Jordan, his two main targets who, he insists, will agree to his plans. These two countries, however, feel they have the support of the world in snubbing his outrageous demands.

They also have the support of law. The suspension of military aid which Trump threatens to Egypt and Jordan will be in contravention of the peace agreements (‘normalisation’) with Israel that the United States has committed to in the past. Trump potential infringment of the agreements will release Egypt and Jordan from any obligations under those agreements if he goes ahead.

Trump is well known for cancelling agreements of major international importance on a whim. Whether this is, for example, cancelling the INF treaty with Russia (which has allowed Russia recently to develop the new Oreshnik missile system), or cancelling the JCPOA nuclear agreement with Iran (which has allowed Iran to develop its capability with only a narrow path left until “breakout”), or now cancelling the Paris Treaty on climate change (which will set the United States well behind on the development of green energy and green technology).   

But his refusal to back the Gaza ceasefire deal that his envoy Steve Witkoff negotiated, although of no surprise, comes in a class of its own. Israel simply didn’t comply with the ceasefire, refusing to allow tents and medicine into the beleaguered enclave. So Hamas justifiably cancelled the second release of hostages. Instead of insisting that Israel comply with the deal that he negotiated, Trump threatens to restart the war. One suspects that Hamas has called his bluff on his naive and badly-disguised ethnic cleansing plan.

The Trump administration is going to fail in the Middle East just as previous administrations have failed, without learning any lessons. But the failure this time will be catastrophic for America. This is the final mile since the initial 2001 invasion of Afghanistan.

The reason is the multiple contradictions that Trump is fostering. Threatening to undermine the long standing normalisation agreements with Egypt and Jordan with his ethnic cleansing plan, when he clearly wants to ‘normalise’ relations now between Israel and Saudi Arabia, is possibly the most visible contradiction. But there are many others. There is the interference in Lebanese politics that has already backfired with the appointment of Hezbollah and Amal ministers to the new government in defiance of the edict issued by Trump’s envoy Morgan Ortagus.

There is also the prospect of Trump’s withdrawal US forces from Syria, presumably for the simple reason that last time he ordered this withdrawal in 2019, it wasn’t complied with by the Pentagon, even as he gives Israel a free hand to take over as much Syrian territory as it wants. Given that the withdrawal of US forces, if the Pentagon complies this time, given that Trump’s man Hesketh from Fox News in charge there now, this will give Turkey a free hand in Syria as well, and things will likely get out of control. That the de facto power in Damascus is still a designated terrorist group – i.e. that there is a power vacuum at Syria’s centre, a showdown between the two US allies – Israel and Turkey – in Syria will be inevitable. It is actually remarkable to see that there is no plan for Syria – at all- (which besides anything else is confirmation of the fact that the United States never expected the fall of Assad and didn’t plan it as everybody wants to think).

But even as the US pulls out of the Iraqi political quagmire, whose government is fast diversifying its economic relationships away from America, Iran, Iraq’s large and influential neighbour, whose strategic patience in the matter of regional politics is legendary, will be waiting in the wings as Syria disintegrates.

But the most incredible own goal has come with Trump’s overreach in Saudi Arabia. Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman MBS made an offer to the United States, as soon as Trump became president, for a security agreement his his country that would also involve the building of a nuclear power plant, in exchange for $600bn of investments to be made by Saudi Arabia into the US economy over a ten-year period. This offer, it has to be understood is being made in the context of a new and different Saudi Arabia, one that has decoupled from the American empire, where Saudi trade with China is three times greater than with the United States, and where foreign direct investment on the part of China in Saudi Arabia is four times greater than that of the United States.  The world has changed for America in the whole Arabian Gulf, in fact, not just in Saudi Arabia.

And yet we saw an intemperate response by Trump to Saudi Arabia’s offer of trade and security arrangements made in good faith. He seems to have been negotiating with the public over a podium in Davos, rather than directly with the Saudis, with his demand of a trillion dollar investment instead of six hundred billion, and at the same time a demand for a reduction in the price of oil – I suppose you might as well get it all in, in one address. But this latter demand was not only immediately rejected by Saudi Arabia but also by drillers in the United States. The shock of Trump’s puerile arrogance would, however, be exceeded, if that was at all possible, by Netanyahu’s aggressive remarks towards the desert kingdom over the fact that he thought there was plenty of room in Arabia for a Palestinian state.

On this matter, the response came back almost at once from Saudi officials, that agreement over a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital is an absolute inextricable condition of any agreement which involves normalisation with Israel. How the Trump administration s going to negotiate its way out of this is unclear. At the start of negotiations on this matter Saudi officials were leaning towards the idea of a road map towards a state, but as things stand this will no longer be possible. It is important to realise that a deal for Trump with Saudi Arabia will be impossible without losing face.

But losing face for Trump will be inevitable. This will come in tandem with the realisation that the whole idea of a “Greater Israel” is an illusion fostered by fanatics in a country whose war strategy is crafted purely around the political survival of one corrupt individual. Neither have vision or strategy. The whole thing is pure tantrum on the part of both. Logic tells us failure and humiliation is inevitable.

According to Marco Rubio’s first interview as Secretary of State, on 30 January, with the advent of the Trump presidency, the “empire” has comes to an end. Rubio said that up until then there had been ‘no strategy’ in American foreign policy, decision makers just debated ‘tactics’ all the time, ‘like what we’re going to do, who we’re going to sanction.’ The question should be, he says, ‘what is the strategic objective? What’s the purpose, the mission?’ He then adds, in question-begging mode, however – surely the aim of ‘foreign policy is to further the national interest of the United States of America, right?’ The interviewer, Megyn Kelley, interrupts with a banal Trumpism: ‘America first:’ so, completely failing to shed light on what is in America’s national interest, all the while thinking she has brought wisdom to bear with her remark.

But then Rubio, a second generation Cuban, raised in the diaspora in Florida that has been politically responsible for ensuring the maintenance of US sanctions against the Caribbean island since 1958, makes the remarkably intuitive deduction about what it means to engage at all with the issue of the national interest. He says in that regard: ‘it’s not normal for the world to simply have a unipolar power… that was an anomaly.  It was a product of the end of the Cold War, but eventually you were going to reach back to a point where you had a multipolar world, -great powers in different parts of the planet.’

Before discussing the national interest of the United States, it would seem from this moment of lucidity, therefore, that an administration had to start thinking of the United States as a nation in relation to other nations in the first place. The problem of thinking of oneself as a nation, however, is that the rest of the world has to be thought of as nations as well. Trump’s second term could have been the start of something new, rather than merely the wake of a dying empire. Unfortunately not. Screaming and shouting indiscriminately at leaders of other nations down the phone is a sign a weakness and no one is the slightest bit intimidated, not least Hamas.

The positive side of what Trump is doing has nothing to do with his intentions but, if we can give Abdel-Malik al-Houthi the credit for the observation, it is to create what has so far been impossible: finally uniting the Arabs.